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Deep Research with Paul AItitle_ai_insight
US strikes Iran by...?
US strikes Iran by...?
Jun 30, 2026
Paul’s Insight
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June 30
52%
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Yes52btn_icon_diamond
No48btn_icon_diamond
March 31
42%
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Yes42btn_icon_diamond
No57btn_icon_diamond
January 31
19%
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Yes19btn_icon_diamond
No80btn_icon_diamond
January 23
7%
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Yes7btn_icon_diamond
No92btn_icon_diamond
January 18
2%
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Yes2btn_icon_diamond
No97btn_icon_diamond
January 17
1%
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Yes1btn_icon_diamond
No99btn_icon_diamond
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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