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Deep Research with Paul AItitle_ai_insight
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Nov 07, 2028
Paul’s Insight
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Market pricing indicates Gavin Newsom is currently perceived as the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, but his lead is modest and the field remains open. Most named candidates have extremely low implied probabilities (below 2%), suggesting no consensus alternative. Significant risk remains due to the early stage in the cycle, potential for new entrants, unforeseen political developments, and low liquidity for many markets. The reliability of these predictions is constrained by limited actionable market data on most candidates and high market uncertainty. Opportunity exists for early positioning if new information shifts sentiment for second-tier candidates or reveals viable new entrants.
Gavin Newsom
24%
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AIYes24btn_icon_diamond
No75btn_icon_diamond
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
7%
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Yes7btn_icon_diamond
AINo92btn_icon_diamond
Jon Ossoff
5%
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Yes5btn_icon_diamond
AINo94btn_icon_diamond
Kamala Harris
3%
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Yes3btn_icon_diamond
AINo96btn_icon_diamond
Josh Shapiro
3%
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Yes3btn_icon_diamond
AINo96btn_icon_diamond
Pete Buttigieg
3%
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Yes3btn_icon_diamond
AINo96btn_icon_diamond
Andy Beshear
3%
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Yes3btn_icon_diamond
AINo96btn_icon_diamond
J.B. Pritzker
2%
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Yes2btn_icon_diamond
AINo97btn_icon_diamond
James Talarico
2%
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Yes2btn_icon_diamond
No97btn_icon_diamond
Jon Stewart
2%
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Yes2btn_icon_diamond
AINo97btn_icon_diamond
Rules
Gavin Newsom
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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