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Deep Research with Paul AItitle_ai_insight
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Nov 07, 2028
Paul’s Insight
title_ai_insight
Analysis of the 2028 US Presidential Election prediction market reveals that, among the named and identified candidates with available market prices, none are currently projected as likely winners. Most leading political figures—including JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and others—have market-implied probabilities well below 30%, with the highest being JD Vance at only 28.5%. Outliers such as celebrities and business leaders (e.g., Elon Musk, Kim Kardashian, Dwayne Johnson) are given extremely low chances (1% or less), reflecting realistic market skepticism of non-traditional candidates’ viability. This strong market consensus suggests either a potential for an as-yet-unidentified candidate to emerge or broad uncertainty about the field at this early stage. The reliability of these predictions is high in indicating a lack of strong consensus for any single figure at present, but the market’s ability to predict the eventual winner this far out is limited by uncertainty and the shifting political landscape. Risk points include the potential entrance of new high-profile candidates or significant events that can reshape public and market sentiment, representing both a risk for those seeking to lock in positions now and an opportunity for early investors betting on under-recognized contenders.
JD Vance
17%
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Yes17btn_icon_diamond
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Gavin Newsom
16%
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Yes16btn_icon_diamond
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Marco Rubio
10%
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Yes10btn_icon_diamond
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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%
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Yes6btn_icon_diamond
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Kamala Harris
3%
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Yes3btn_icon_diamond
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Jon Ossoff
3%
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Yes3btn_icon_diamond
No96btn_icon_diamond
Tucker Carlson
2%
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Yes2btn_icon_diamond
AINo97btn_icon_diamond
Josh Shapiro
2%
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Yes2btn_icon_diamond
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Donald Trump
2%
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Yes2btn_icon_diamond
AINo97btn_icon_diamond
Andy Beshear
1%
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Yes1btn_icon_diamond
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Rules
JD Vance
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
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