Deep Research with Paul AI
Orders
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Nov 07, 2028
Paul’s Insight
Prediction market data for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination shows J.D. Vance as the clear frontrunner with a 55.5% implied probability—far ahead of all other contenders. This sharp lead indicates strong market consensus for Vance, likely influenced by the perceived trajectory of current Republican politics and leadership pipeline, as well as his relative prominence and electability. All other candidates, including well-known figures like Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and Ron DeSantis, have notably low implied probabilities (each below 7%), signifying that the field is currently viewed as highly consolidated around Vance. Potential risks to these predictions include political volatility, future shifts in party sentiment, and the possibility of emergent candidates. Prediction markets rely on available information and trader sentiment, so new developments could alter market prices substantially. Given the time remaining before the 2028 nomination, long-term forecasts contain some uncertainty, but the present market shows exceptionally strong confidence in Vance as the nominee.
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J.D. Vance
36%
AIYes36
No63
Marco Rubio
21%Yes21
AINo78
Tucker Carlson
4%Yes4
AINo95
Ron DeSantis
2%Yes2
AINo97
Glenn Youngkin
1%Yes1
AINo98
Donald Trump
1%Yes1
AINo98
Thomas Massie
1%Yes1
No98
Donald Trump Jr.
1%Yes1
AINo98
Rand Paul
1%Yes1
AINo98
Ivanka Trump
1%Yes1
AINo98
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Insight Sources
