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Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Dec 31, 2026
Paul’s Insight
Current market pricing strongly indicates that none of the named candidates are favored for a Trump Fed Chair nomination; most 'Yes' implied probabilities are well below 0.25, implying low collective market confidence in any single frontrunner. The highest implied probabilities are for Kevin Hassett (0.355), Christopher Waller (0.21), and Rick Rieder (0.0895); all remain under 0.4, demonstrating broad uncertainty or the expectation of an alternate, less-discussed nominee. Influencing factors include Trump's previous comments, alignment with his policy priorities, political considerations, and the evolving external economic environment. There is low perceived risk of a surprise pick from among high-profile or recurring names, but opportunity may exist in monitoring developments for less publicized or yet-unnamed candidates. The reliability of these predictions is high for excluding most listed candidates, but the absence of a clear favorite and lack of pricing for ‘someone else’/unnamed individuals highlights a moderate level of uncertainty regarding the eventual pick.
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Rick Rieder
7%
Yes7
AINo92
James Bullard
3%Yes3
AINo96
Rules
This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Insight Sources
